I saw an article on my home page this morning that was equal parts disingenuous, insulting, and dumb. I felt I should share it here.
Let's see what these esteemed economists have to say:
Throughout Tuesday’s vice-presidential debate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) blamed soaring housing costs on a spike in immigration over the past few years — promising that a crackdown on illegal immigration and “kicking out illegal immigrants who are competing for those homes” would help affordability.
“Twenty-five million illegal aliens competing with Americans for scarce homes is one of the most significant drivers of home prices in the country,” Vance said.
OK, on its face this seems like an obvious conclusion. Millions of people are pouring into the country. They aren't all sleeping in the woods, right? So then we can only conclude that this increases demand for housing. There really isn't any way to argue this one.
That claim has been debunked by economists and housing experts, who say that other forces have played a much bigger role in driving up prices and that illegal immigration is not a top reason prices are high.
"Other Forces"? So, the Economists are telling us that demand is not very relevant in determining prices?
Immigration may be helping to keep rents elevated in some areas, though.
But also, demand "may" have something to do with it.
Foreign-born workers also make up roughly a third of the construction workforce, a crucial part of the push to build millions of new homes and fix years-long shortages.
Was the debate about workers who are "Foreign-born" or about those who are here illegally? Where they were born is irrelevant, how they came to be here is the question.
That means the strict immigration crackdown Vance and former president Donald Trump are proposing could send prices even higher.
"Don't take away the easily exploited and untraceable workforce with no rights or accountability that we've created...things will get more expensive."
How is this any different from the argument slave owners used against abolition?
“I don’t think [new immigrants] are demanding the same type of dwellings that are pulling up prices,” said Dany Bahar, an economist at Brown University and nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Well, there you have it everyone. Dany Bahar of Brown University "doesn't think" these immigrants are demanding the same type of dwellings as the middle class. No further scholarly input should be needed. Case closed.
“These people are not competing for the same households as middle-class Americans.”
So then they're just competing for the same households as lower class Americans? Oh, good. You had me worried. For a moment there, I thought non-poor people might be affected.
Immigration has undoubtedly changed the U.S. economy, especially since the pandemic. About 50 percent of the labor market’s extraordinary recent growth came from foreign-born workers between January 2023 and January 2024, according to an Economic Policy Institute analysis of federal data.
So immigration does impact the economy dramatically?
To the point that half of the jobs created in the last year went to (that term again) "foreign-born workers"?
But no significant impact in the housing market, which 100% of the immigrant population participates in?
Remarkable.
Before that, by the middle of 2022, the foreign-born labor force had grown so fast that it closed the gap created by the pandemic, according to research from the San Francisco Fed.
Man, those "Foreign-born" workers are really lending a hand. When all those citizens lost their jobs due to the pandemic, these heroes courageously stepped up to fill those positions.
In February, estimates from the Congressional Budget Office said the U.S. labor force will increase by 5.2 million people by 2033, thanks especially to net immigration. The economy is projected to grow by $7 trillion more over the next decade than it would have without new influxes of immigrants, according to the CBO.
"Net Immigration"
That’s an interesting metric to use. Why are we focusing on the net and not the gross?
A larger population, in turn, creates more demand for housing and other services.
Wait a minute...
CBO research from July noted that higher immigration raises state and local governments’ spending — particularly on education, health care and housing — more than it increases their revenue.
So this influx of illegal immigrants is a drain on state and local resources?...including housing?...which is also somehow unaffected?
Yet housing options for new immigrants, including many undocumented workers in lower-wage jobs, are often distinct from the broader market that native-born workers deal with. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, noted that many new immigrants come to the United States with few financial resources and little income. They often double- or triple-up with friends or family in a single home. They are also far less likely to be able to buy a home, which can require a sizable down payment and enough credit history to get a mortgage.
That can mean more pressure for the rental market, where affordability issues are also front and center.
Thank God only 34% of American citizens rent their homes, the remaining two-thirds will be less impacted. The 34% can just use their disadvantage as motivation to quit being poor and lazy and just become homeowners or something.
In testimony before Congress last month, Steven A. Camarota, director of research for the conservative Center for Immigration Studies, tied the post-pandemic run-up in rental costs to the growing number of immigrant renters.
“This is certainly consistent with the possibility that immigration, including illegal immigration, has significantly increased housing prices in areas of heavy immigrant settlement,” Camarota said.
Yet it’s not clear exactly how much immigration has influenced the overall rental market.
It isn't?
Rent costs shot up in 2021 and 2022 on the heels of the pandemic, as people reconsidered where they wanted to live and suddenly competed for the same units. But new leases have since stabilized considerably, and rates are even falling in some cities. On average, apartments are slightly cheaper today than they were one year ago, according to Apartment List’s rental tracker, and have stayed in the red for months.
On average...but that isn't the argument, is it? Camarota is talking about increases in "areas of heavy immigrant settlement". Why would you counter that with the national average unless you were trying to mislead everyone..
During the debate, Vance alluded to what he said was a Federal Reserve study that “really drills down on the connection between increased levels of migration, especially illegal immigration, and higher housing prices.” After the debate, he posted a May 2024 speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman in which she seemed a bit less certain, saying, “Given the current low inventory of affordable housing, the inflow of new immigrants to some geographic areas could result in upward pressure on rents, as additional housing supply may take time to materialize.”
She was "a bit less certain". So uncertain, in fact, that she literally confirmed the exact thing that Vance claimed.
Vance seemed to be referring to the for-sale market, which has been in the throes of a different kind of upheaval. When the Fed slashed interest rates to near zero at the beginning of the pandemic, mortgage rates fell, meaning scores of home buyers locked in rates around 3 or 4 percent. Then, rates went on an upward tear as the Fed hoisted borrowing costs to tame inflation, peaking around 8 percent last fall.
The result: Millions of homeowners who might otherwise have sold their homes stayed put to keep their low mortgages. That “lock-in” effect could soon start to undo itself, as interest rates drop. But that may also inject more demand into the market, making it harder for lower-income and first-time buyers to get in.
Demand impacts supply? OK, let me write that down.
The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Vance’s remarks.
"We gave them 15 minutes to respond before running the story.. Their silence speaks volumes"
Zoomed out, experts broadly agree that the country needs more housing.
Do they? Why might that be?
Vice President Kamala Harris says she wants to help build 3 million new homes, give state and local governments incentives to invest in housing, and create a multibillion-dollar tax credit program to make affordable projects pencil out for builders. The campaign has also promoted a $25,000 assistance plan to help first-time buyers.
Some economists have criticized those plans as having the potential to juice demand and drive prices up, though.
Demand impacts supply. OK, I'd better circle that one.
During the debate, Walz said that “we can’t blame immigrants for the only reason” housing has become unaffordable.
Good thing no one is doing that.
“The fact of the matter is that we don’t have enough naturally affordable housing. But we can make sure that the government’s there to help kick-start it,” Walz said.
By artificially increasing demand? Which you just told me impacts supply? Even though your whole premise is that it doesn't?
White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein said Vance doesn’t understand the housing market, telling The Washington Post, “If you get the diagnosis wrong, as Vance did, you’ll never solve the problem.”
White House Council of Economic Advisers: "Supply and demand have no effect on markets"
Housing policy doesn’t just fall to the federal government — it’s more like a tangled web of state and local laws, including zoning. But building new homes requires workers.
Won't those workers also need homes? We'd better get more workers to build those, but then they'll need homes too....hm.
Trump’s proposals to deport millions of undocumented immigrants — which would be exceedingly difficult to carry out — would bring major consequences for the construction industry and the overall housing market if he succeeds.
In a widely cited February paper, researchers at the University of Utah and the University of Wisconsin found that higher immigration enforcement reduced the number of construction workers and led to less home building and higher home prices.
Noted.
The paper also found that “undocumented labor is a complement to domestic labor,” and that deporting undocumented construction workers also cut back on the labor supplied by domestic workers.
Well, that explains it.
But wait..how did they arrive at that conclusion? The labor is undocumented, so how did they quantify it? How could they possibly do that? What academic magic did they invoke to produce data about something for which there is no accurate record?
Questioning this would put us at risk of blaspheming against the high priests of academia.
The Exalted Experts have delivered the final word on the matter. No sense arguing.
These ridiculous tools calling themselves journalists shouldn't be taken seriously by anyone. Most of you already know that, but it bears repeating on a regular basis. God forbid any of us ever drop our guard and accidentally listen to the garbage these shameless propagandists churn out.
This is from Vickie Paladino, who is a NYC councilwoman and it sums it up. This is in response to someone making the same housing question point. I've seen this scoffing at the housing question exclusively from upper class people:
"They just have no idea what's going on because they don't care what poor people are going through. And they think it's hilarious.
Allow me to explain reality now, because it's something the working class is dealing with here in NYC as well as the rest of the country.
No, illegal immigrants are not crossing the border and then outbidding affluent white people in upscale suburbs, you glib moron.
However, what they ARE doing is flooding the housing market at the bottom end. These are rental units that go to working class and low-income individuals of all races, and they're now having to compete with MILLIONS of new arrivals who require housing.
This alone is enough to overwhelm inventory and drive up prices, BUT it gets even worse.
Because these migrants are entering the market with government housing vouchers, which allow them to pay better than market rate in most cases. And this serves to drive up the cost of housing EVEN MORE -- simply eclipsing the struggling working-class Americans who also need housing but now cannot afford anything at all.
There are reports of this all over. We heard a lot about it firsthand from residents of Springfield, who were either priced out of the market entirely -- or even worse, forced to leave their apartments in order to make way for higher-paying migrants with a government voucher.
These Americans are being forced into homelessness thanks DIRECTLY to our border and migrant policy. And you people think it's funny.
Here in New York we're experiencing a similar housing crisis. Costs are through the roof and our constant importation of migrants is putting enormous pressure on the bottom end of the housing market. It's an absolute disaster here. And as a 'solution', the progressives are now trying to completely eliminate zoning regulations for the entire city, so low-income housing projects can be built literally anywhere by anyone, just to accommodate all the 'new arrivals' we're taking in.
Entire residential neighborhoods filled with middle-class families who've worked their entire lives for a small house in Queens are going to have their community become a completely unrecognizable slum within five years because progressive Democrats decided it's our moral obligation to take in an unlimited flood of unvetted third-world migrants and have no idea how to handle it now that they're here.
This is reality for working people right now. This is what we're facing thanks to Democrat policies.
I know you think it's hilarious that anyone even cares about any of this. But those of us who actually have to live with the terminal consequences of progressivism are getting fed up."
what’s funny is that the Washington Posts entire audience is all in on Kamala and the Dems. they really don’t need convincing. what that article does is that it functions as a bunch of really fancy sounding arguments from proper “experts”, that their audience can easily parrot in spite of the basic logic of supply and demand.
cuz let’s face it, no one is looking at this problem economically. it’s just emotional hysteria masquerading as super smart sounding stuff for the Malcolm Gladwell folks…